The cancellation of the de minimis rule in the US in August 2025 radically changed the Etsy landscape. The biggest impact was on international sellers: organic traffic from search drops on average by 20–50%, as Etsy’s algorithms began to show products with import duty risks less frequently. The main challenges for 2026 are the psychological barrier among buyers caused by “warning banners” and the need to multiply the advertising budget to maintain previous sales levels. However, statistics show that stores that maintained smooth delivery without complaints are gradually regaining their positions in search results after the adaptation period concludes.
Comparison of indicators: High season 2024 vs 2025/26
| Indicator | Season 2024 | Season 2025/26 | Reason for Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic Search | Steady growth | Drop to 50% | Algorithmic decrease in import impressions. |
| Advertising Budget | $20 / day | $80 / day | Need to compensate for SEO traffic loss. |
| Conversion | High | Lowered | Buyers’ fear of customs duties. |
No product — no problem
This is clearly visible in the analytics. My search traffic from Etsy has dropped by as much as 50%. Etsy also started showing my listings on other pages by 21%. Meanwhile, just recently, this indicator was growing — we were featured several times in Etsy’s marketing activities even in summer 2025.
When I took more recent statistics — from December 1 to the end of January — the picture slightly improved. The decline in search is now 22%, not 50%. But there is still a decrease.
Another important point: Etsy began adding a special badge to seller listings that ship goods from abroad. A warning that the item may be subject to import duties.
From Etsy’s perspective — this is the right move. They want to prevent negative feedback, reduce the number of complaints, and avoid situations where buyers simply do not pick up their parcels.
But from a sales perspective — this is a very strong psychological barrier for potential buyers.
And buyers really started to avoid imported goods. Even if they really like the product, even if it’s unique, even if the price is acceptable. I see this almost daily in my messages. Buyers ask: “Will I need to pay anything extra?” Others inquire: “Is it guaranteed that there will be no customs fees?” Someone writes: “I don’t want surprises upon delivery, so I want to cancel the order.”
I think that over time, buyers will get used to it — but how long will that take?
All of this collectively caused my unsuccessful season. Fortunately, despite the decrease in sales, I didn’t stop. I kept adding new listings, kept working actively in the shop every day. In the end, I still earned money, didn’t go into loss — I even have a small profit compared to last season. Although it was much more difficult to work than a year ago.
But when was it easy on Etsy? Recently, I noticed that sales have picked up slightly and traffic has begun to grow gradually.
Here's what I think about the reason
Do you remember, somewhere in October Etsy sent out emails to all sellers — informing them that the Star Seller status would be automatically extended for those who had it. This lasted through November and December — a sort of grace period for adapting after the import duties were introduced.
On December 31, I received another letter: the grace period is ending. Etsy wrote that they noticed — my orders are increasingly being delivered on time, there are no complaints from buyers, and no refusals upon receipt.
And after that, they seemed to turn the traffic to my shop back on again. Maybe I imagined it? But here’s the traffic chart: from December 1 to the end of December — less, and starting from the end of December, traffic started to go up. The average line has still improved.
It’s been very little time to make any final conclusions. But I hope that our business on Etsy will continue to grow.
Checklist for sellers: How to survive after de minimis cancellation
| Action | Why is this needed |
|---|---|
| Expanding assortment | More listings — more chances to “catch” in search. |
| Using DDP | Pre-paid customs duties remove customer “surprise” fears. |
| Advertising work | The only guaranteed way to show the product to the buyer in the USA. |
Conclusion
- How to use artificial intelligence to grow your Etsy shop?
Artificial intelligence can be used to create brand names, logos, banners, as well as to generate product ideas and improve visuals. It helps quickly find more professional and sale-oriented solutions. - How does AI help increase handmade goods sales?
AI suggests trending changes in design (colors, shapes, details), offers accessories, and helps add emotional appeal to the product. This makes the product more attractive and increases conversion rates. - Can AI be used to create a brand on Etsy?
Yes, AI effectively generates names, slogans, and brand concepts. Especially effective are story-driven brands that evoke emotions and increase product value. - How does AI help improve product photos and visuals?
With AI, you can create ideas for layouts, backgrounds, and presentation of the product, as well as visualize updated versions of the product. This helps quickly create attractive and sales-driving listings.
